Disease | Model and parameter test | White noise test | ||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Model | Parameter | Estimates | Std Error | t | P | Ljung–Box | P | |
Natural focal diseases | ARIMA (1,0,0) (0,1,0)12 | AR Non-seasonal lag 1 | 0.438 | 0.132 | 3.326 | < 0.05 | 0.185 | 0.667 |
Seasonal difference | 1 | Â | Â | Â | ||||
Malaria | ARIMA (1,0,1) (1,1,0)12 | AR Non-seasonal lag 1 | 0.97 | 0.05 | 19.01 | < 0.05 | 0.089 | 0.765 |
MA Non-seasonal lag 1 | 0.79 | 0.12 | 6.37 | < 0.05 | ||||
AR Seasonal lag 1 | −0.44 | 0.14 | −3.18 | < 0.05 | ||||
Seasonal difference | 1 | Â | Â | Â | ||||
SFTS | ARIMA (0,1,1) (1,0,0)12 | AR Non-seasonal lag 1 | 0.78 | 0.21 | 3.67 | < 0.05 | 0.304 | 0.581 |
AR Non-seasonal lag 1 | 0.98 | 0.22 | 4.47 | < 0.05 | ||||
Non-seasonal difference | 1 | Â | Â | Â | ||||
Dengue | ARIMA (1,1,1) | MA Non-seasonal lag 1 | 0.44 | 0.12 | 3.70 | < 0.05 | 1.171 | 0.279 |
AR Seasonal lag 1 | 0.64 | 0.11 | 6.02 | < 0.05 | ||||
Non-seasonal difference | 1 | Â | Â | Â |