Fig. 4
The estimation of final size (K) with fixed turning points. In each panel, the horizontal axis is the time since the start of the epidemic, which is also the end time (T1) of the dataset to train the growth model. The vertical axis is the projected final size, K. The vertical gray line is the estimated turning point, τ, by using the full dataset, which matches the models with the lowest AICs in Tables 1 and 2. The horizontal gray line is the estimated final size, K, by using the full dataset, which matches the models with the lowest AICs in Tables 1 and 2. The red curve is the real-time projection of K with τ fixed to be February 1, 2016 (vertical red dashed line). The blue curve is the real-time projection of K with τ fixed to be March 1, 2016 (vertical blue dashed line). The green curve is the real-time projection of K with τ fixed to be April 1, 2016 (vertical green dashed line). The shading area represents the 95% CI