Raw data from 300 simulations | Bounce back | Transmission interruption | Totals |
---|---|---|---|
Test positive | 15 | 254 | 269 |
Test negative | 21 | 10 | 31 |
Totals | 36 | 264 | 300 |
 |  | 95% Confidence limits |  |
 | Estimated value | Lower limit | Upper limit |
Prevalence of interruption | 0.880 | 0.836 | 0.913 |
Sensitivity | 0.992 | 0.929 | 0.980 |
Specificity | 0.583 | 0.409 | 0.740 |
Probability of simulation being either transmission interruption or bounce back | |||
 Interruption | 0.9 | 0.855 | 0.930 |
 Bounce back | 0.1 | 0.072 | 0.145 |
For predicted elimination - probability of being true or false | |||
 True positive (PPV) | 0.944 | 0.908 | 0.967 |
 False positive | 0.055 | 0.032 | 0.092 |
For predicted bounce back - probability of true or false | |||
 True negative (NPV) | 0.677 | 0.485 | 0.826 |
 False negative | 0.322 | 0.173 | 0.514 |
Likelihood ratios | |||
 Positive (C) | 2.309 | 1.568 | 3.401 |
 Negative (C) | 0.064 | 0.034 | 0.124 |
 Positive (W) | 16.933 | 10.347 | 27.713 |
 Negative (W) | 0.476 | 0.277 | 0.817 |