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Table 1 Centroid shift, shift direction, conserved area, lost area and gained area in the Mediterranean basin for the different studied phlebotomine species for the three reference years (2020, 2050 and 2080) under the pessimistic scenario A2a and the optimistic scenario B2a

From: Ecological niche modeling predicting the potential distribution of Leishmania vectors in the Mediterranean basin: impact of climate change

 

Centroid shift (km)a

Shift direction (°)

Conserved area (%)

Lost area (%)b

Gained area (%)

2020

2050

2080

2020

2050

2080

2020

2050

2080

2020

2050

2080

2020

2050

2080

Scenario A2a

 P. papatasi

292

595

948

17

14

359

84.1

72.5

49.3

-16.0

-27.5

-50.7

21.8

45.2

63.6

 P. alexandri

341

483

484

232

231

231

90.5

87.0

86.1

-9.5

-13.0

-13.9

4.9

9.1

12.8

 P. ariasi

408

1019

1279

67

71

75

83.4

71.2

62.5

-16.7

-28.8

-37.6

29.7

69.4

90.5

 P. sergenti

88

290

255

211

235

211

75.3

56.8

41.3

-14.7

-43.2

-58.7

35.2

51.8

68.1

Scenario B2a

 P. papatasi

298

460

728

358

5

13

83.8

77.1

67.9

-16.3

-22.9

-32.1

24.5

32.9

47.1

 P. alexandri

304

401

533

233

233

233

91.4

88.8

85.8

-8.6

-11.2

-14.2

5.8

7.4

10.1

 P. ariasi

298

524

1150

69

70

71

82.0

76.6

71.3

-18.1

23.4

-28.7

26.8

37.5

80.3

 P. sergenti

67

15

155

184

152

233

74.4

67.5

58.6

-25.6

-32.5

-41.4

25.6

50.3

57.8

  1. aThe centroid shift is the geodesic distance between the centroids of the present and the potential future specie ranges, the shift direction is the angle between North (0°) and the geodesic path between the present and the potential future centroids
  2. bThe lost area is the percentage of area lost by the species in comparison to the current species range and the gained area is the percentage of area gained by the species in comparison to the current species range