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Table 2 Time series and intervention models for HVL, PCP (%) and PMH (%) in Belo Horizonte, Minas Gerais, Brazil, 2006–2013

From: Spatial and temporal relationships between human and canine visceral leishmaniases in Belo Horizonte, Minas Gerais, 2006–2013

Indicator

Variable

Coefficient

SE

Z-value

P-value

HVLa

Theta_1

-1.03

0.05

-19.53

< 0.0001

Theta_5

-0.37

0.11

-3.33

< 0.0001

Theta_6

0.55

0.09

5.67

< 0.0001

Dummy_jan_2008_3

0.28

0.09

3.09

< 0.0001

Dummy_jan_2008_4

-0.30

0.00

-3.36

< 0.0001

PCPb

Phi_1

0.62

0.08

7.20

< 0.0001

Theta_1

-1.00

0.06

-14.94

< 0.0001

Dummy_jan_2011

0.68

0.24

2.82

< 0.0001

Dummy_jan_2011_1

-1.83

0.43

-4.19

< 0.0001

Dummy_jan_2011_2

1.13

0.25

4.49

< 0.0001

PMHc

Phi_1

0.99

0.07

12.61

< 0.0001

Phi_3

-0.18

0.08

-2.25

0.02

Theta_1

-1.49

0.03

-39.96

< 0.0001

Theta_3

0.49

0.03

13.19

< 0.0001

Dummy_apr_2008

0.76

0.06

11.42

< 0.0001

Dummy_aug_2009

-6.87

1.36

-5.04

< 0.0001

Dummy_aug_2009_1

5.97

1.31

4.53

< 0.0001

  1. Abbreviations: HVL human visceral leishmaniasis, PCP proportion of canine prevalence = positive dogs in ELISA and RIFI/ dogs evaluated, PMH proportion of monitoring hosts (dogs not euthanized by the health service) = positive dogs only in the ELISA/ dogs evaluated; SE standard error
  2. aHVL: Autoregressive integrated moving average model (ARIMA) (0, 1, 6) adjusted; Akaike information criterion: 103.40, Schwarz criterion: 118.19, and Hannan-Quinn criterion: 109.35
  3. bPCP: ARIMA (1, 1, 1) adjusted; Akaike information criterion: 25.99, Schwarz criterion: 40.93, and Hannan-Quinn criterion: 32.01
  4. cPMH:ARIMA (3, 1, 3) adjusted; Akaike information criterion: 425.40, Schwarz criterion: 445.40, and Hannan-Quinn criterion: 433.46