Table 2 Outcomes from simulation modelling and economic analysis for the current situation and different scenarios simulated
Outcomes | Baseline All animals undergo current inspection | Scenario A HRF&HRA: Enhanced LRF&HRA: Normal HRF&LRA: Enhanced LR: no inspection | Scenario B HRF&HRA: Enhanced LRF&HRA: Normal HRF&LRA: Normal LR: Normal | Scenario C HRF&HRA: Enhanced LRF&HRA: Normal HRF&LRA: Enhanced LR: Normal | Scenario D Enhanced inspection in all animals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Total number of infected carcasses | 2354 (1645–4247) | 2354 (1645–4247) | 2354 (1645–4247) | 2354 (1645–4247) | 2354 (1645–4247) |
Number of infected carcasses detected | 348 (336–360) | 438 (338–668) | 445 (352–656) | 454 (353–690) | 583 (361–1091) |
Percent of infected carcasses detected | 15 (8–21) | 19 (14–23) | 19 (14–24) | 19 (15–24) | 25 (18–31) |
Number of inspections needed to find one infected carcass | 7183 (6944–7440) | 4630 (3050–5997) | 5605 (3822–7082) | 5494 (3665–7082) | 4288 (2302–6887) |
Number of normal inspections | 2,500,000 | 1,657,096 | 2,206,747 | 2,123,729 | 0 |
Number of enhanced inspections | – | 375,768 | 293,253 | 376,271 | 2,500,000 |
Number of animals not inspected | 0 | 467,136 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Total costs in million (£) | 8.53 (8.52–8.54) | 7.08 (7.02–7.24) | 8.63 (8.57–8.77) | 8.64 (8.58–8.79) | 8.99 (8.84–9.33) |
X = Cost of scenario – Cost of baseline | – | -1.44 (-1.51– -1.29) | 0.10 (0.04–0.23) | 0.11 (0.06–0.25) | 0.46 (0.32–0.79) |
Y = Outcome of scenario – Outcome of baseline | – | 92 (2–319) | 98 (6–307) | 107 (16–334) | 237 (25–743) |
ICER = X/Y (in million £ per carcass detected) | – | -0.013 (-0.093– -0.069) | 0.001 (0.0007–0.003) | 0.001 (0.0007–0.003) | 0.002 (0.0009–0.008) |