A forecasting model for dengue incidence in the District of Gampaha, Sri Lanka

Parasites & Vectors

Table 1 Pearson’s correlations between log₁₀-transformed dengue cases (2012–2015) and weather variables in the District of Gampaha

Meteorological variable	Lag 0	Lag 1	Lag 2	Lag 3
Rainfall	-0.08	0.148	0.353*	0.094
Rainy days	-0.017	0.249	0.426*	0.065
Minimum temperature	0.066	0.25	0.291	0.295*
Maximum temperature	-0.385*	-0.398*	-0.238	0.058
Minimum RH	0.186	0.395*	0.420*	0.092
Maximum RH	-0.026	0.14	0.276	-0.019
Wind speed	0.159	-0.011	-0.234	-0.095
Dengue cases	–	0.716*	0.426*	0.222
(Dengue cases)²	–	0.720*	0.432*	0.226

*Significantly correlated lagged variables with dengue incidences during the study period. A 5% significance level was used to identify significant correlations

ISSN: 1756-3305