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Table 3 Regression coefficients, RRs and 95% CrI from Bayesian spatial and non-spatial models for dengue cases from 2005 to 2013

From: Spatial and temporal patterns of dengue infections in Timor-Leste, 2005–2013

Model/variables

Coefficient, posterior mean (95% CrI)

RR, posterior mean (95% CrI)

Model I (unstructured)

 α (Intercept)

-14.09 (-16.1, -11.03)

 

 Childrena

-1.343 (-1.429, -1.257)

0.26 (0.24, 0.285)

 Sexb

0.111 (0.035, 0.187)

1.12 (1.036, 1.206)

 Temperature mean (°C)

0.007 (0.006, 0.008)

1.007 (1.006, 1.008)

 Precipitation (mm)

0.382 (0.258, 0.462)

1.47 (1.294, 1.587)

 Omega

0.77 (0.753, 0.786)

 

Heterogeneity

 Structured

 Unstructured

0.068 (0.047, 0.094)

 DIC

13,685.9c

 

Model II (structured)

 α (Intercept)

-23.07 (-27.75, -15.0)

 

 Childrena

-1.34 (-1.568, -1.118)

0.26 (0.208, 0.327)

 Sexb

0.115 (-0.105, 0.34)

1.12 (0.9, 1.405)

 Temperature mean (°C)

0.007 (0.004, 0.009)

1.01 (1.004, 1.009)

 Precipitation (mm)

0.502 (0.244, 0.685)

1.65 (1.276, 1.984)

 Omega

0.767 (0.735, 0.797)

 

Heterogeneity

 Structured

0.02 (0.014, 0.028)

 Unstructured

 DIC

13,808.2

 

Model III (structured and unstructured)

 α (Intercept)

-18.33 (-24.42, -7.246)

 

 Childrena

-1.342 (-1.46, -1.225)

0.26 (0.232, 0.294)

 Sexb

0.114 (−0.001, 0.232)

1.12 (0.999, 1.261)

 Temperature mean (°C)

0.007 (0.005, 0.009)

1.01 (1.005, 1.009)

 Precipitation (mm)

0.409 (0.023, 0.59)

1.51 (1.023, 1.804)

 Omega

0.768 (0.747, 0.788)

 

Heterogeneity

 Structured

0.067 (0.024, 0.155)

 Unstructured

0.139 (0.072, 0.279)

 DIC

13,709.5

 
  1. Abbreviations: CrI, credible interval; RR, relative risk; DIC, deviance information criterion
  2. aAge < 14 years was reference
  3. bMale sex was reference
  4. cBest-fit model