Table 4 Modeled population-adjusted predicted prevalence (PAPfPR_1–59) by province and year, and predictions under constant climate or ITN scenarios, Zambia 2006–2012. Alternative predictions for 2010 were produced by including either the 2008 climate layers (for constant climate prediction) or the 2008 ITN and IRS layers (for constant vector control prediction)

Central

22.7 (5.0–52.4)

8.8 (1.3–27.1)

15.0 (3.2–36.4)

12.9 (2.7–33.2)

7.8 (1.3–23.4)

15.8 (3.4–37.6)

Lusaka

5.4 (0.7–16.5)

1.8 (0.2–5.8)

1.7 (0.2–5.4)

1.0 (0.1–3.7)

0.7 (0.1–2.7)

1.9 (0.2–5.7)

Copperbelt

17.3 (5.1–38.4)

14.8 (5.9–29.0)

13.2 (5.5–26.0)

6.0 (1.2–16.5)

7.1 (2.7–15.3)

12.8 (5.2–25.1)

Eastern

29.9 (8.6–60.0)

12.5 (3.2–30.7)

28.0 (10.1–54.1)

23.0 (7.7–47.4)

17.7 (5.4–39.3)

29.6 (10.9–56.1)

Luapula

31.6 (9.7–63.2)

19.9 (5.8–43.7)

35.1 (14.5–60.8)

32.8 (12.4–59.3)

27.5 (9.8–52.9)

35.4 (14.6–61.5)

Northern

26.8 (6.5–60.1)

14.4 (3.1–39.4)

17.3 (5.2–39.7)

19.7 (5.6–44.9)

12.3 (3.3–30.6)

17.0 (5.1–39.1)

North-western

22.3 (2.2–65.3)

12.7 (1.6–40.7)

16.0 (2.2–48.8)

17.6 (2.9–49.9)

9.6 (1.2–33.0)

17.1 (2.4–50.8)

Southern

11.4 (1.7–36.5)

7.1 (1.7–18.8)

9.6 (2.3–24.1)

7.7 (1.7–21.9)

6.1 (1.1–17.3)

9.5 (2.3–23.4)

Western

16.1 (2.2–47.3)

5.8 (0.6–22.1)

8.1 (1.0–27.9)

14.3 (2.3–42.1)

5.3 (0.6–19.8)

9.7 (1.3–31.9)

National

19.6 (4.6–46.4)

10.4 (2.6–26.8)

15.3 (4.9–33.7)

13.5 (3.7–31.7)

9.9 (2.7–24.2)

15.7 (5.0–34.3)