Table 4 Progression to KA depending on change in serology status from first survey to second survey. Hazard ratios and p-values estimated from fitted Cox proportional hazard models. Sero-status: seronegative (−), seropositive (+), strongly seropositive (++)
From: Quantification of the natural history of visceral leishmaniasis and consequences for control
Group | First survey | Second survey | Total evaluated | Progressors (%) | Hazard ratio (95Â % CI) | p |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Non-convertors | - | - | 1103 | 10 (1Â %) | Ref. | N/A |
+ | + | |||||
Sero-deconvertors | +/++ | - | 145 | 2 (1 %) | 1.54 (0.34–7.02) | 0.58 |
++ | + | |||||
Seroconvertors | - | + | 95 | 4 (4 %) | 4.73 (1.48–15.1) | 0.009 |
Strong seropositives | ++ | ++ | 11 | 4 (36 %) | 61.5 (19.3–196) | 3.5 × 10−12 |
Strong seroconvertors | −/+ | ++ | 18 | 13 (72 %) | 165 (74.6–365) | <2 × 10−16 |