Table 3 Model calibration to tsetse and NHA trypanosome prevalence and validation to 2013 stage I HAT incidence
From: Evaluating long-term effectiveness of sleeping sickness control measures in Guinea
| Â | Data | Estimates from base-case model (no NHA reservoir) | Estimates from model with NHA |
|---|---|---|---|
Tsetse prevalence (2008) | Assumed < 1 % | 0.0018 % (95 % CI:0.001–0.0040 %) | 0.08 % (95 % CI:0.002–0.4 %) |
NHA prevalence (2008) | Assumed < 1 % | Fixed at 0 % | 0.3 % (95 % CI: 0.0005–0.9 %) |
Stage I HAT incidence (2013) | 0.07 % (95 % CI: 0.01–0.2 %) | 0.15 % (95 % CI: 0.07–0.2 %) | 0.17 % (95 % CI: 0.06–0.21 %) |