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Table 2 Prior and posterior distribution of parameter estimatesa

From: Evaluating long-term effectiveness of sleeping sickness control measures in Guinea

No non-human animal reservoir (Base-case)

Parameter

Prior

Median (95 % CI)

  β VH

U(0.1,0.6)

0.3750 (0.1698, 0.5626)

  β H

U(0,1)

0.1751 (0.0778,0.8550)

 1/ζ

U(0,252)

202 (97,250)

  x

-

0.0503

With non-human animal reservoir

Parameter

Prior

Median (95 % CI)

  β VH

U(0.1,0.6)

0.3020 (0.1021, 0.5932)

  β H

U(0,1)

0.0076 (0.0011,0.3265)

 1/ζ

U(0,252)

203 (101, 243)

  β L

U(0,1)

0.1345 (0.0476, 0.6619)

  x

-

0.0503

  1. aLikelihood function was formed using beta distributions for stage I and stage II HAT cases in year 2008 (Stage I: Beta(3,1488), Stage II: Beta(2,1488) and in year 2013 (Stage I: Beta(3,7788), Stage II: Beta(4,7788)