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Table 2 Estimated parameters

From: Short-term forecasting of the prevalence of clinical trachoma: utility of including delayed recovery and tests for infection

Model ID

Estimated parametersa mean (95 % CI)b

 

Mean of logβ

SD of logβ

Efficacy of antibiotic

γ

μ TF

σ TF

λ TF

μ TI

σ TI

μ PCR

σ PCR

η TF

η TI

η PCR

1

−1.18 (−2.35, −0.782)

0.363 (0.216, 0.754)

0.891 (0.838, 0.944)

0.127 (0.0561, 0.191)

0.816 (0.634, 0.995)

0.245 (0.19, 0.32)

0.571 (0.445, 0.664)

0.166 (0.1, 0.533)

0.0457 (0.0389, 0.0555)

0.316 (0.185, 0.86)

0.0697 (0.0583, 0.0824)

-

-

-

2

−0.57 (−1.31, −0.145)

0.0987 (0.00192, 0.341)

0.888 (0.839, 0.952)

0.231 (0.057, 0.47)

0.657 (0.294, 0.983)

0.231 (0.178, 0.303)

0.55 (0.438, 0.644)

-

-

-

-

-

-

-

3

−1.68 (−2.6, −1.06)

0.779 (0.418, 0.988)

0.937 (0.837, 0.978)

0.08 (0.055, 0.207)

0.358 (0.181, 0.994)

0.296 (0.188, 0.358)

0.591 (0.182, 0.665)

0.135 (0.0618, 0.436)

0.0454 (0.0366, 0.057)

0.24 (0.152, 0.793)

0.0708 (0.058, 0.0849)

0.0225 (0.001, 0.062)

0.33 (0.145, 0.522)

0.182 (0.098, 0.328)

4

−0.922 (−7.48, −0.2)

0.117 (0.006, 0.711)

0.899 (0.838, 0.983)

0.264 (0.061, 0.461)

0.671 (0.107, 0.984)

0.249 (0.166, 0.413)

0.495 (0.302, 0.7)

-

-

-

-

0.0248 (0.001, 0.068)

-

-

5

−1.24 (−2.52, −0.831)

0.629 (0.276, 0.756)

0.928 (0.843, 0.979)

0.352 (0.106, 0.419)

0.862 (0.616, 0.97)

0.295 (0.19, 0.34)

0.597 (0.244, 0.649)

0.272 (0.132, 0.513)

0.0385 (0.0329, 0.0443)

0.596 (0.368, 0.875)

0.0616 (0.0534, 0.0717)

-

-

-

6

−2.84 (−9.56, −0.116)

0.184 (0.00647, 0.634)

0.964 (0.838, 0.995)

0.351 (0.0579, 0.472)

0.702 (0.211, 0.977)

0.308 (0.172, 0.384)

0.592 (0.314, 0.686)

-

-

-

-

-

-

-

7

−0.309 (−1.31, −0.191)

0.161 (0.0695, 0.381)

0.883 (0.838, 0.903)

0.289 (0.156, 0.376)

0.583 (0.508, 0.994)

0.126 (0.112, 0.157)

-

0.0881 (0.0592, 0.364)

0.0471 (0.0373, 0.0583)

0.183 (0.132, 0.609)

0.0703 (0.0583, 0.0844)

-

-

-

8

−0.123 (−0.637, −0.0199)

0.0411 (0.001, 0.164)

0.859 (0.837, 0.896)

0.0995 (0.055, 0.271)

0.301 (0.251, 0.814)

0.121 (0.107, 0.141)

-

-

-

-

-

-

-

-

9

−3.73 (−9.74, −2.45)

0.774 (0.0932, 0.995)

0.886 (0.857, 0.911)

0.16 (0.149, 0.166)

0.652 (0.612, 0.823)

0.897 (0.879, 0.907)

0.315 (0.247, 0.356)

0.58 (0.509, 0.783)

0.984 (0.98, 0.986)

0.627 (0.575, 0.887)

0.963 (0.957, 0.966)

-

-

-

10

−1.53 (−7.76, −1.16)

0.651 (0.0369, 0.953)

0.966 (0.855, 0.998)

0.0833 (0.0572, 0.165)

0.536 (0.501, 0.904)

0.903 (0.887, 0.916)

0.242 (0.18, 0.348)

-

-

-

-

-

-

-

  1. a: please see Additional file 1 for the interpretations of parameters; for the observation model with sensitivity and specificity (models 9 and 10), μ TF is the sensitivity of TF, σ TF is the specificity of TF, μ TI is the sensitivity of TI, σ TI is the specificity of TI, μ PCR is the sensitivity of PCR, and σ PCR is the specificity of PCR
  2. b: 95 % CI was obtained from MCMC with 16384 steps after a burn-in including 8192 steps
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Parasites & Vectors

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